Stage 10 Predictions & Climbing Favourites — Tour de France 2025
We’re diving straight into the Auvergne volcanic heartland, where narrow climbs, technical descents, and open ridges that’ll have crosswinds snapping jerseys like flags will test the peloton’s legs, nerves, and alliances.
Stage 10 Key Tactics & Team Strategies
This isn’t just a ride in the park — it’s chess on wheels, 163 km of psychological warfare at altitude. Here’s how the big brains in the team cars and on the bikes will play it:
Early Race (0–50 km): Calm Before the Storm
- Expect a savage fight for the breakaway.
It’s Bastille Day, baby — every French wildcard wants TV time, and the climbers looking for a stage win will kick off the fireworks early. - GC teams? Not a care in the world… yet.
Let the locals and KOM hunters have their fun.
Breakaway hopefuls: Bardet, Ciccone, Madouas, Powless.
Mid-Race (50–125 km): Control & Crosswinds
- Peloton tightens the leash.
UAE, Jumbo-Visma, and INEOS will slowly start reeling things back in. - Watch the Col de Guéry sector (km 83) — exposed, narrow, and a known crosswind trap.
If the wind kicks up, expect echelons or at least some GC nerves.
Sprinters and classics guys? Gruppetto time. Sayonara.
The Final Battle (125–163 km): High-Altitude Mayhem
Croix Saint-Robert (km 142)
- 6.5 km @ 7.2% — Steep enough to test GC legs.
- Expect domestiques to light it up, shred the bunch.
- Weak GC hopefuls will crack like overcooked eggs.
Puy de Sancy (Finish)
- 5.4 km @ 8% summit finish, no hiding.
- This is where GC contenders go full thermonuclear.
- Likely 5-7 riders left at the flamme rouge (1 km banner), then a final slugfest.
Key Moves on Stage 10:
- Attack over Croix Saint-Robert.
Possible jump from a brave soul like Ciccone or Gaudu. - GC showdowns in final 3 km.
Pogačar? Vingegaard? Ayuso? Someone will blink, someone will break. - Domestique heroics:
Massive role for McNulty, Kuss, Martínez — whoever gets their leader to 3 km-to-go upright wins the MVP badge.
Stage 10th Hot Zones:
KM Marker | Sector | Tactical Call |
|---|---|---|
0–50 | Breakaway formation | French riders + KOM hopefuls to attack |
83 | Col de Guéry (crosswinds) | GC guys to stay safe, sprint teams abandon |
142 | Croix Saint-Robert | Peloton shatters, GC teams deploy climbers |
158–163 | Puy de Sancy | Final GC showdown, possible stage win |
🚨 Pro Tip:
Positioning before Croix Saint-Robert is EVERYTHING. Bad spot? You’re toast.
Summary:
Breakaway gets rope early. GC teams throttle back at mid-stage. Total carnage on Croix Saint-Robert. Full send on Puy de Sancy. Someone’s Tour will end here.
Who Benefits? Mountain Men & GC Titans
Listen up — this isn’t a day for the fast-twitch sprinters or rouleurs hoping for a lazy ride to the line. Nope, Stage 10 is a playground carved out for the grimpeurs, GC gangsters, and pure climbers with dynamite in their quads and ice in their veins. Let’s break down exactly who this stage caters to:
Favourites for Stage 10: Who’s Got the Legs?
Top Contenders (Summit-Finish Aces)
Rider | Team | Why They’re a Threat |
|---|---|---|
Tadej Pogačar | UAE Team Emirates | He lives for these 8% mountain grinds, thrives on explosive uphill sprints, and loves a Bastille Day ambush. |
Jonas Vingegaard | Visma-Lease a Bike | Featherweight on the climbs, lethal on high-altitude finishes. If his form’s on, he’s dropping people for fun. |
Remco Evenepoel | Soudal–Quick-Step | Not as light as the others, but his punch on short, steep climbs is savage. Could test the waters early here. |
Carlos Rodríguez | INEOS Grenadiers | Young, fearless, and born for this kind of lumpy, multi-climb mountain stage. Watch for a late flyer. |
Romain Bardet | DSM–Firmenich PostNL | French pride, Bastille Day, home climbs. This is personal for Bardet. Will he go kamikaze? Wouldn’t rule it out. |
Who Else Could Stir the Pot?
- David Gaudu (Groupama–FDJ) – Another local boy who knows these roads like the back of his hand.
- Giulio Ciccone (Lidl–Trek) – KOM contender type, loves mid-stage ambushes.
- Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates) – Young gun teammate for Pogačar, potential decoy move.
GC Guys vs Breakaway Raiders
Scenario 1:
GC teams (UAE, Jumbo, INEOS) control things through the mid-stage climbs. Big guns go head-to-head on Croix Saint-Robert and Puy de Sancy.
Scenario 2:
A strong break of 7–10 riders gets rope early, builds a 4-5 minute gap. If no GC threats, they’ll make it deep into the final 20 km before the hammer drops.
Real Talk:
On a Bastille Day summit finish in France? The GC teams won’t mess around. Breakaways might live long, but not long enough.
Who This Stage Will Break
- Sprinters: Stick to the gruppetto.
- Classics Specialists: Drop like flies after Croix-Morand.
- GC Riders on an Off Day: Could lose minutes on Puy de Sancy if legs aren’t there. The time gaps will sting.
Key Takeaway:
This stage is tailor-made for the climbers with GC ambitions and a handful of aggressive French riders desperate to light it up on home soil. The big names will show themselves — and someone’s yellow dream might end here.
🔥 If you’ve got a pick for a breakout day, today’s your stage.
Predictions & Fan Polls: Stage 10 – The Mountain Mayhem
This ain’t no flatland sprint finish. This is high-stakes climber warfare. Expect GC hopefuls to drop the hammer, legs to blow up, and dark horses to steal the show.
Top Contenders for Stage 10
Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
- Loves long, irregular climbs
- Explosive on final ramps
- Bastille Day flair fits his panache
Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike)
- Calm, surgical, deadly
- Will wait, then strike Croix Saint-Robert
Carlos Rodríguez (INEOS Grenadiers)
- Climbing form’s red-hot
- Outsider who could surprise
David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ)
- France’s great Bastille Day hope
- Expect him to attack, crowd will roar
João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates)
- If pace is steady, he’s a diesel motor that doesn’t crack
📉 GC Drama Alert
Roglič, Evenepoel, Hindley?
Watch them carefully. First real test, could lose time if dropped early on Puy de Sancy.
Fan Poll: Who Conquers the Summit?
Vote your pick:
📌 Tadej Pogačar
📌 Jonas Vingegaard
📌 David Gaudu
📌 Carlos Rodríguez
📌 João Almeida
📌 Other (name your wildcard!)
Poll Prompt:
“Who’ll plant their flag atop Le Mont-Dore like a true Tour de France legend?”
My Bold Prediction:
Stage 10 Winner: Tadej Pogačar
Why?
He lives for these mountain stages. Mixes Bastille Day energy with raw watts. Expect an attack with 2 km to go on Croix Saint-Robert, gaps them all, solos to glory.
Podium Call:
🥇 Pogačar
🥈 Vingegaard (keeps it tight)
🥉 Gaudu (for the French fireworks)
GC Shakeup?
✅ Remco Evenepoel to drop a handful of seconds
✅ Almeida steady, Roglič shaky
