Tour de France 2025 GC Contenders Preview: Who Can Break the Pogačar & Vingegaard Grip?
The Tour de France is evolving its war story. And in 2025, we’re not rewatching a rerun. This is a fresh chapter, with new rivalries, rising alliances, and a hint of unpredictability that’s been missing since the 2020 Pogacar coup.
For the past three editions, the script has been tight: Tadej Pogačar vs Jonas Vingegaard, with the occasional brave cameo from the likes of Primož Roglič or David Gaudu. We’ve seen brutal high-mountain duels, jaw-dropping time trial comebacks, and head-to-head fireworks on icons like the Col de la Loze and Hautacam. But 2025 is brewing something spicier.
Why?
Because form lines are closer than they’ve been in years, and the wildcard contenders aren’t just hoping for bad weather or a random mechanical. They’re arriving with intent.
- Pogačar’s been near-untouchable on the climbs this season, but he’s shown cracks in chaotic transitional stages.
- Vingegaard, despite his Critérium du Dauphiné attacks, still carries the scars — physical and tactical — of a shaky Paris–Nice crash this spring.
- Primož Roglič is back, now in Red Bull livery, with the kind of quiet confidence that makes rivals nervous.
- And Remco Evenepoel, with a national TT title freshly in the bag and a fearless racing style, isn’t here for a top-10 — he’s here to stir the script.
Add to that Carlos Rodríguez’s consistent rise and a Tour route built for long-range ambushes, steep gradients, and crosswind traps, and suddenly this isn’t just a Pog & Vinge monopoly anymore.
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This is your ultimate GC contenders’ guide for 2025 Tour — and it starts now.
The Pog & Vinge Era: Still Untouchable or Vulnerable?
Since 2021, the story’s been simple: Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard run the Tour de France, and everyone else survives it. Between them, they’ve won four straight Tours, snatched nearly every summit finish, and made every other GC contender race for third.
But 2025 might finally loosen that grip.
Let’s stack the evidence:
Tadej Pogačar — The Artist of Aggression
✔️ Current form: 2025 has been vintage Pog. He dominated the Giro d’Italia, won Liège–Bastogne–Liège, and topped two high-altitude training camps. He’s dropped rivals with signature accelerations on 10–12% gradients and sharpened his TT legs with a recent national title.
✔️ Weakness: His occasional impatience in transitional stages — crosswind drama or chaotic hilly classics-style days have tripped him up before. Stage 7 or Stage 15 could be landmines.
✔️ Tour record:
- 🥇 2020: overall win
- 🥇 2021: overall win
- 🥈 2022: second to Vingegaard
- 🥈 2023: second to Vingegaard
- DNS 2024 (focused on Giro)
Peak Pog is as deadly as ever, but his one-day mindset sometimes clashes with three-week discipline.
Jonas Vingegaard — The Ice-Cold Executioner
✔️ Current form: Quietly excellent in 2025. Took overall at Critérium du Dauphiné despite a crash-marred Paris–Nice. Known for peaking specifically for the Tour.
✔️ Weakness: His team’s depth post-Roglič exit is thinner, especially in crosswinds and flatland control. And while he’s a monster above 1,800m, he’s occasionally vulnerable on explosive 6–8 km climbs.
✔️ Tour record:
- 🥈 2021: second to Pogačar
- 🥇 2022: overall win
- 🥇 2023: overall win
- 🥈 2024: narrowly edged by Pogačar in a final TT stunne
Vingegaard thrives in control-mode mountain stages and defensive riding. If isolated or forced to respond early, cracks can appear.
2025 Verdict: The Empire’s Not As Secure
Pog and Vinge are still the Tour’s apex predators — but the margin’s slimmer. The Tour’s brutal three consecutive mountain stages in the final week, two time trials, and volatile mid-mountain trap stages favor tactical coups. A well-timed ambush or a team melt-down in the crosswinds could split the duopoly.
And make no mistake: Roglič, Evenepoel, Rodríguez, and Gaudu aren’t chasing podium spots this time. They’re hunting weakness.
Who’s Hunting Yellow? 2025 GC Challengers Breakdown
Let’s dive into the riders with serious claims this summer — the pros who aren’t just tagging along, but targeting the podium:
Primož Roglič – The Comeback King
- Form Flashbacks: After skipping Paris–Nice due to injury, Roglič returned with a bang — clinching Volta a Catalunya and a flamboyant stage win at Dauphiné, before switching to Red Bull–BORA under a digitally driven leadership setup.
- Terrain Target Zones: Explosive climbs and long-range punchy efforts — Mont Ventoux, Hautacam, and Stage 18’s Courchevel summit chase.
- Tour Role & Ambition: This is no domestique act. He’s the BORA captain, with mountains set as his battleground and a clear mind for TT.
- Threat Level: 🔥 High — He can outsprint Pogacar on short, sharp uphill finishes and hang tough in TT. Just needs a clean week.
Remco Evenepoel – The Belgian Barrage
- Form Flashbacks: Crushing TT national championships and refining his muscles at altitude camps signal he’s Tour-ready. He’s bounced back from 2024 Tour inexperience and showed grit in 2025 classics.
- Terrain Target Zones: On Mountain TT Stage 13 and high climbs like Mont Ventoux (Stage 16) and Courchevel (Stage 18) suit his all-round explosive pace.
- Tour Role & Ambition: Soudal–QuickStep designated GC leader — with TT strength and aggressive climbing moves in his toolkit.
- Threat Level: ⚠️ Genuine — If his mountain legs hold, he can shake the whole GC top 5 early on.
Carlos Rodríguez – INEOS’s Silent Assassin
- Form Flashbacks: His 2024 run included a win at Tour de Romandie and top-5 Dauphiné; 2025 saw steady climbs and TT reliability. All signs point to a polished contender.
- Terrain Target Zones: Stages with mixed climbs and high-altitude sprint finishes — ideal for a climber who can TT like a boss.
- Tour Role & Ambition: Not just Luca Martínez’s backup. INEOS lean in: he’s their GC option, with Bernal and Martínez in tactical supporting roles.
- Threat Level: 🔥 Rising — Studiers expect him to stick with Pog in key climbs and chase podium time bonuses on harder TTs.
Others On The Radar
Egan Bernal (INEOS) – Fresh GT return after crash, targeting aggressive mountain days en route to GC top five.
João Almeida (UAE) – Consistent stage hunter who could slip into top 8 with a strong TT and cautious mountain week.
David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) – Not GC favorite, but a lightning striker on rolling mountain terrain — danger on unpredictable summit finishes.
The Dark Horses & Tactical Spoilers You Shouldn’t Sleep On
Every Tour has its script-flippers — those gritty climbers, wildcard TT’ers, and fearless opportunists who might not win yellow, but can destroy someone else’s shot at it. In 2025, here’s who’s lurking in the shadows:
🐎 Giulio Ciccone (Lidl–Trek) – The KOM Raider
Why He Matters: Fresh off snatching the polka dots in the 2024 Giro, Ciccone thrives on multi-climb stages. Loves the high mountains, especially back-to-back summit finishes.
GC Disruptor Move: Goes rogue in early breakaways, collects mountain points, and forces GC teams to burn matches chasing him down. Can flip the script on Stages 12, 16 & 18.
⚡ Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates) – The Future’s Already Here
Still only 22, Ayuso has the watts and climbing flair to cover Pogacar or launch his own ambush if the GC gets cagey.
GC Disruptor Move: May attack as a decoy to bait Roglič/Vinge into wasting domestiques. Massive potential on Ventoux and Courchevel.
Michael Storer (Tudor Pro Cycling) – Breakaway Bomber
One of the sharpest stage hunters in the peloton, Storer loves long-range raids in mountain chaos.
GC Disruptor Move: Stages 14 and 19 — expect him in the day’s move, forcing teams to rethink pacing and GC protection strategies.
Romain Bardet (DSM-firmenich PostNL) – Veteran Dream Ruiner
Why He Matters: Tour de France stage wins, KOM jerseys, top 5 GC finishes — Bardet’s done it all, and still has legs.
GC Disruptor Move: If conditions get hot and explosive, Bardet thrives. A rogue attack on Stage 10 or 14 can fracture alliances.
Tactical GC Scenarios & What Could Flip the 2025 Tour
Every Tour de France GC battle gets shaped by a handful of critical moments — crashes, crosswinds, monster climbs, and team gambles. Here’s how the 2025 edition could turn upside down:
Crosswind Carnage (Stages 2, 3, 9, 17)
Scenario: Northern France and Rhône Valley = notorious for echelons. If UAE or Visma decides to split it early, GC outsiders (Evenepoel, Gaudu) could lose minutes before the first climb.
Key Teams: Visma | UAE | Soudal Quick-Step | Bora
Potential Flip: A Roglič or Evenepoel trapped in second echelons while Pogacar rides clear with a select group. It happened in 2019, it can happen again.
TT Shake-Up (Stages 5 & 13)
2025 has two individual time trials:
- Stage 5 (33 km, rolling)
- Stage 13 (11 km, uphill to Peyragudes)
Evenepoel thrives here. Could claw back 1 minute on Ventoux losers, resetting the GC table before the final Alpine siege.
Potential Flip: If Pogačar bleeds over a minute to Evenepoel on both TTs combined, it’s game on.
Back-to-Back Mountain Chaos (Stages 16–19)
Mont Ventoux (Stage 16), Courchevel (Stage 18), and La Plagne (Stage 19) — three summit finishes in four days, high altitude, and heat.
Key Teams: Visma and UAE must burn domestiques wisely. If they gamble too early or get isolated… even Bardet or Ciccone could trigger a GC meltdown.
Potential Flip: One ill-timed hunger flat or crash on Ventoux changes the entire podium picture.
🏁 Bottom Line:
2025 GC battle is more volatile than it looks.
- Early crosswinds
- Time trial gaps
- Monster Alpine days
- Rogue attacks
Tadej’s still the top dog, but the throne’s not as safe as it seems.
Team-By-Team GC Firepower: Who’s Got The Strongest Squad Behind Their Leader?
In modern Tours, no GC contender wins alone. It’s about who’s got the deepest bench, mountain sherpas, wind blockers, and TT experts ready to sell their soul for the cause. Let’s size up the 2025 GC squads:
🇦🇪 UAE Team Emirates — Built Around Tadej Pogačar
Key Support Riders:
- Juan Ayuso (climber/all-rounder)
- Marc Soler (breakaway neutralizer)
- João Almeida (high-mountain diesel)
- Vegard Stake Laengen (flatland muscle) if riding
Strength: Deep climbing unit + multiple GC back-ups.
Weakness: Risk of internal conflict if Ayuso flies.
🔥 GC Firepower Grade: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🇳🇱 Visma | Lease a Bike — Jonas Vingegaard’s Mountain Guard
Key Support Riders:
- Sepp Kuss (climbing lieutenant)
- Wilco Kelderman (all-rounder)
- Jan Tratnik (flat & breakaway control)
- Dylan van Baarle (crosswind enforcer)
Strength: Pure mountain horsepower, unshakeable race control.
Weakness: Vingegaard’s form off injury watch.
🔥 GC Firepower Grade: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🇧🇪 Soudal Quick-Step — The Remco Revolution
Key Support Riders:
- Ilan Van Wilder (climber/time trial support)
- Mauri Vansevenant (mid-mountain fighter) if riding
- Louis Vervaeke (domestique deluxe)
Strength: TTs and punchy climbs.
Weakness: Thin high-mountain roster.
🔥 GC Firepower Grade: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🇸🇮 Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe — Roglič’s Comeback Squad
Key Support Riders:
- Aleksandr Vlasov (co-leader)
- Danny van Poppel (leadout + crosswinds)
- Florian Lipowitz (mountain dom)
- Gianni Moscon (breakaway foil)
Strength: Balanced mix of climbers and rollers.
Weakness: Depth under pressure in Alps.
🔥 GC Firepower Grade: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🇪🇸 INEOS Grenadiers — Dark Horse Arsenal
Key Support Riders:
- Carlos Rodríguez (potential leader)
- Tom Pidcock (climbing wildcard)
- Egan Bernal (comeback story)
- Geraint Thomas (race brain & TT enforcer)
Strength: Multiple GC-capable cards.
Weakness: Lack of one undisputed alpha.
🔥 GC Firepower Grade: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🔥 Fun fact: All of these guys ended up either winning the Tour or finishing runner-up.
Predictions: Who Stands on the 2025 Tour de France Podium?
Because what’s a GC preview without bold calls? Forget safe picks — here’s who’s lighting up Paris in late July, and who’s going home wondering what if.
🥇 1st Place: Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
Why?
Simply too versatile, too aggressive, too ruthless. With a stacked climbing unit and both time trials suiting his style, Pogačar’s got the legs and the mentality to snatch his third yellow jersey. His early-season form was untouchable, and unless injury or team chaos strikes, he’s the man to beat.
Key Stages to Watch: 12, 16, 18, and both TTs.
🥈 2nd Place: Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Why?
If anyone can dethrone Tadej, it’s the ice-cold Dane. Two-time winner, master of pacing on brutal climbs, and backed by the strongest mountain team. His question mark? Recovery from that gnarly Basque Country crash this spring. If he’s 100%, it’s war.
Key Stages to Watch: Same mountain block as Pogi + crosswind days.
🥉 3rd Place: Carlos Rodríguez (INEOS Grenadiers)
Why?
The Spanish climber quietly emerged as a GC threat last season and looks stronger in 2025. With Bernal, Pidcock, and G. Thomas to shield him, he’s poised for a podium breakout. Punchy, composed, and lethal on long climbs.
Dark Horse Factor: Might even trade blows with Vingegaard if the Dane’s not at 100%
GC Wildcards To Watch:
- Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step): If he survives the high mountains, he could time trial his way into a top-5.
- Primož Roglič (Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe): Never count out the old fox. One good long-range raid and it’s game on.
- Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates): If Pogi falters, Ayuso’s next in line — and hungry.
Who’s Your Pick for Yellow in Paris?
Drop your pick in the comments 👇
- Tadej Pogačar
- Jonas Vingegaard
- Remco Evenepoel
- Carlos Rodríguez
- Someone Else
Expert Predictions & Hot Takes From the Cycling World
You’ve heard our podium picks — now here’s what the cycling insiders, ex-pros, and peloton whispers are hinting ahead of the 2025 Tour de France GC battle. Some of these takes are scorching.
What the Experts Are Saying:
📌 Bradley Wiggins (GCN+ Analyst)
“If Vingegaard is anywhere close to his 2023 numbers, it’s going to be one of the all-time Tour battles. But if he’s even 5% off, Pogačar takes this by 3 minutes.”
📌 Orla Chennaoui (Eurosport)
“Carlos Rodríguez is the breakout star waiting to happen. INEOS have been quiet too long — this is their chance to get back on the box.”
📌 Alberto Contador (Eurosport)
“If there’s crosswinds in the first week, Remco’s going to lose time. His big weapon is the TTs, but it won’t matter if he’s five minutes down before Stage 12.”
📌 Thomas Voeckler (France TV)
“Mont Ventoux is where the 2025 Tour gets ripped open. Pogačar and Vingegaard will duel there — the one who drops the other wins the whole thing.”
🥵 Red-Hot Peloton Rumors:
- Whispers from UAE Team Emirates suggest Pogačar might try a long-range attack as early as Stage 10 if the Pyrenees soften up Vingegaard.
- Visma insiders believe Vingegaard’s condition is good, but not 2023 peak — “He’s still missing a few watts on 40+ minute climbs.”
- Ayuso’s camp quietly fancy a podium if team orders allow.
“A non-Pogačar/Vingegaard rider WILL win a mountain stage and shake up the GC before the final TT.”
Remember you heard it here first.
FAQs: GC Essentials
We dug through forums, fan chats, and socials to pull the real questions people are asking. No fluff — just what matters.
Tour de France 2025 feels bigger, sharper, and more unpredictable than we’ve seen in years. Tadej Pogačar is chasing immortality. Jonas Vingegaard wants to defend his crown and prove his resilience post-injury rumors. And behind them? A pack of hungry, fearless contenders ready to gamble everything for glory.
Key climbs like Mont Ventoux and Col de la Loze aren’t just road tests — they’re careers in the making. The time trials could swing the balance early, but it’s the high mountains where legends are forged and dreams detonated.
Who’s your GC pick for Tour de France 2025? Drop your podium predictions below 👇 — let’s see who calls it right before Paris.
